Monday, 8 April 2013

In The Land Of The Bland

John Bird in The Times was the final insult. A short piece, ranting about 'the poverty industry' which at first I thought he meant welfare to work contractors, payday lenders etc. But no, Mr Bird made it explicit even if he didn't actually name anyone: charities, churches and welfare campaigners. Apparently it should be us rather than Iain Duncan Smith who should try living on benefits of £53 a week. Even then, Bird was not supportive of the government but he betrayed a startling ignorance about where the main opposition to their policies comes from. I can't really blame him; we're not frequently given public platforms to access a nationwide audience in order to put our case across. The few times we are, it is in overtly hostile circumstances- see Sue Marsh's appearance on Newsnight with the then Employment Minister Chris Grayling and the presenter Emily Maitlis.

This post starts with Bird at the end of the mid-week. Since I started writing it there have been more developments, some pustule-seeping in their ugliness- but begins with Iain Duncan Smith last weekend. The majority of the measures enshrined in the Welfare Reform Act 2012 became active on Monday. The backlash came slightly early and the government was unprepared and to my eyes it is very clear they were unprepared. They'd already 'won'(after losing and then cheating to get their way by misusing financial privilege which I'll come back to later) so no longer had to pro-actively fight. Miller and Grayling could be safely promoted and two people who are even less capable of being coherent without a script were brought in to fill their portfolios. The problem is that incompetence will destroy this government and social security is the prime danger area. Whilst fighting for the Welfare Reform Act the pattern of minister was to make a ridiculous claim, look at how it was responded to and then slightly adjust that claim incrementally each time so it seemed like they were always sticking to the same message whilst they had actually been forced to change it drastically as the Facts disagreed with them. First DLA claimants had never been re-assessed, then there was no re-assessment process, then there was no regular systematic re-assessment process, then most claimants had their decisions based on a form alone with no assessment of further medical evidence. Each time one was debunked with facts, a new version of it popped up. Where there was no new version, they never repeated the claim again and it was forgotten about. However they could still rely on the complacent media still circulating the original version without ever checking it.

But the activity of ministers this week has not resembled that.

They panicked, they did not expect it would be 'a thing' and so they've had to go back to their original scripts. The problem is they appear to have gone to the first page because they're using the original, ridiculous and extremely easy to respond to claims they started out with in 2010. Only the British media could let supposedly accountable politicians get away with deception on this scale and such incompetence.

The week begins with Iain Duncan Smith being asked if he could live on £53 a week, what the questioner thought the current rate of Jobseekers Allowance is. Smith's response was unfortunate and damage-limitation was in place just hours later, ready for the newspapers going to print. Now this is all immaterial- it doesn't affect any of the actual Facts about benefits or the absurd justifications for welfare reforms, but it is a very good indicator of the character of the Secretary of State. The message in this attempted recovery of the agenda was that Smith had been unemployed and claiming benefit twice, with the repeated phrase that he 'knows what it is like to be on the breadline'. Just a problem: the first time he was unemployed was after leaving the armed forces in 1981 where being a former officer he was going to be receiving help after six years of service. In that same year had married his wife, a very wealthy heiress and they moved into the family manor together. Breadline. In 1992 he was made redundant and has described the three months that he was looking for work whilst claiming Income Support as an unemployed person. What people found odd was his description of using his Amstrad computer to look for work. We know he was wealthy but at that time the world wide web had much lower connectivity than it does now; there were no commercial ISPs serving the general public until around 1995. This isn't a detail Smith needed to give, but he gave it and it can't possibly be true. People who lie take a measured risk and say as little as possible. Only habitual liars tell lies that they don't need to because they're just very comfortable with it. That is our Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.

The night before though, the Conservative Party chairman made a tweet that wouldn't be News until Monday, only the Press Association carried it at first. It would be optimistic to say it waited that long to be thoroughly discredited though as it had already been so when he first made the claim.

Grant Schapps, Chairman of the Conservative Party.

Declan Gaffney has the measure of Schapps' factual void. In summary, the DWP has looked at the reasons for why claims were stopped during this phase and found them to be the opposite of what he implies. This isn't simply a matter of Schapps just being ignorant; he can not possibly be unaware that the figure is not even for Incapacity Benefit but for Employment Support Allowance. Anyone would think he was talking about people on IB who are being migrated to ESA, but this is really just new ESA claimants and of course- many get better within that period because it's consistent with the off-flows for short term claimants. 

George Osborne, Chancellor of The Exchequer.

A speech at a depot timed to coincide with the policies coming into effect. Widely-reported. Under-scrutinised, outside of the blogosphere. I'll ignore his use of rhetoric because it is immaterial and depends on a degree of trust in what he said that would evaporate if his audience knew his specific factual claims were intentional falsehoods. A comment he makes about 'taking the argument to them' meaning 'us' just gets a smirk- it is the Employment Minister in his government who refuses to be in the same room with 'us'. Osborne would not survive moments in an actual argument with any of the Spartacus group.
"Let’s start with the welfare system. I think people in this country understand that the welfare system needs to change. In 2010 alone, payments to working age families cost £90 billion. That means about one in every six pounds of tax that working people like you pay was going on working age benefits"
Osborne omits to mention how much of that is actually spent on out-of-work benefits considering how much his speech focuses on that. The forecast break-down from the DWP Benefit Expenditure Table for 2012/13 is:

Jobseekers Allowance- £5.1 billion.
Employment Support Allowance- £6.7 billion.
Incapacity Benefit- £3.2 billion.
Income Support- £5.3 billion.
Total- £20.3 billion

That is how much is spent on those the Chancellor spends most of the welfare portion of his speech targeting. The rest is money that could be claimed by anyone in his audience.
"The system became so complicated, and benefits so generous, that people found they were better off on the dole than they were in work."
This claim has been made many times before and again since Osborne used it last Monday. Naturally it's kind of simple to knock down and it has been frustrating to watch our media-classes fail to challenge it. This claim depends entirely on not comparing like with like. Declan Gaffney has the full explanation, here's my summary using his graph:

http://lartsocial.org/sites/default/files/field/image/comparisont.JPG
http://lartsocial.org/jukingthestats
The Department for Work and Pensions has a 'tax-benefit model' it uses to calculate the impacts of minor changes to policy on individual claimants. They are audited National Statistics so unlike most of the figures generated by ministers themselves these are quality-assured. The calculations used by Jobcentres and Citizens Advice to show to people how much better off they are in work have their root in this system. It does not surprise me that the last version to be released was in 2009, as the information yielded by the tax-benefit model is very inconvenient for the claims used to advance Coalition welfare policy. What you see above is like for like comparisons, showing what is generally representative; the circumstance under which it is possible to be better off not working are actually very narrow.
"And the figures show what happened as a result. Even at the end of the economic boom in 2008 there were more than four million working age people on out of work benefits."
Why doesn't he mention the situation prior to 2008? Because none of the benefits he's talking about had any overall growth for more than a decade before. Here's a quick graph I made using the NOMIS figures for out-of-work benefit claims going back to 2000.


That is exactly how I would expect an all-engulfing snow-balling catastrophe to look on a chart. Really.
"And here’s the saddest fact of all."
...Because it's subject to such misrepresentation?
"We had nearly two million of our children living in families where no-one worked – the highest proportion of any country in the European Union, including countries much poorer than us."
Osborne offers no explanation for this, instead inviting the audience to jump to conclusions based on the prejudices already sown with all the innuendo the government has briefed newspapers about the issue of children in 'workless households'. Well I looked for the relevant data and this time it goes back to 1995 but unfortunately stops in 2007. No doubt there are figures somewhere though. How does the number of children in households with no one working look in a time series graph?


If Osborne had to acknowledge history he would have phrased his assertion without including the bit about children in non-working families being 'nearly two million' in 2010: it reveals that since 2007 the figure had dropped even further despite the recession. It also confirms my memory that more recent figures are out there, they just haven't turned up in my research for this post, done under a deadline which at this point I've missed by almost 90 hours.
"And governments of all colours let too many unemployed people get parked on disability benefits, and told they’d never work again. Why? Because people on disability benefits don’t get counted in unemployment figures that could embarrass politicians."
Despite it being a frequent claim, the evidence that there has ever been a policy to hide unemployment by putting people on Invalidity and Incapacity Benefit hasn't materialised. Observe this graph from the first Harrington report:
In the newspapers, the claim depends on no one questioning its supporting factual assertion: that claims have risen 'over thirty years' to the point they are at now. Nothing of the sort: almost the entire rise happens in a short period coinciding with the introduction of Care in the Community. More claimants become female. More primary affecting conditions become mental health, cognitive and psychiatric diagnoses. The on-flows were not structural changes but a one-off rise caused by changes of who was eligible. People in care homes and psychiatric units are not, so when there were less people in them, there were more eligible. Substantial demographic changes consistent with this rise support that. It costs less to pay someone these benefits than it does to have them in a residential setting: there is no overall net cost to this rise.
"When I took this job, I discovered there were some people who got £100,000 a year in Housing Benefit. £100,000 a year in benefit. No family on an ordinary income could ever dream of affording a rent like that."
The Chancellor doesn't say what he considers 'an ordinary income to be', but most people earn below the median and plenty of those are eligible for Housing Benefit for their rent. The claim anyway is ancient and has nothing to do with when he came into office. FullFact.org were told by the DWP that information about this figure was unavailable. That was after the DWP press office had repeatedly referred their researchers to the Sun and Daily Mail archives for examples of this supposedly happening. The DWP were scrambling for some evidence to justify the claims of ministers in government. This was at the time the first sign that press office had been politicised. In any case, it wasn't even possible to claim that much at the time the claim was being asserted: Housing Benefit claims were limited by Local Housing Allowance claims and they could never be £100,000 a year until June 2010. Osborne first made the claim in his emergency budget in June 2010, but the data from local authorities wasn't available to central government until September.

Some actual figures did eventually come out of the DWP after FullFact made a FOI request, as did the important technical notes When it was revealed, it was widely misreported as 'just 5 cases' claiming more than £100,000 a year in Housing Benefit. The real figure though was 'less than 5'. So isn't it still outrageous that anyone, even if it is less than five claimants can have so much spent on them for Housing Benefit? Well the figure has to be interpreted in light of the technical notes and here's what people need to know:
  1. The figure is rounded to the nearest 10.
  2. The figure is only those claiming the equivalent of £100,000 a year.
  3. It assumes that they are claiming that for a whole year.
So if the figure was zero, there was no way it would show up as zero. Considering the rounding is to the nearest 10, there is almost certainty to be inferred here that the figure actually is zero. Osborne makes more claims of Fact but as they're not specifically about welfare, they're best left out. At a glance- they're still misleading.

This was originally going to be two mega-posts, but with the time it has taken and the speed of developments, it's going to have to be three or four smaller ones, so I'll end it here. Next up is Esther McVey's car crash on Channel 4 News. Today is now Monday and last week has been called 'the government's best week in politics ever'. That is unfortunate as it is also the week in which almost every lie they told over a period of two years was concentrated into just a few days and these are extremely thin pieces of cardboard to blow down. In the Land of the Bland, the few actually blowing are only waiting for their moment and when it happens, ministers will find themselves grossly under-prepared.

To an extent they realise this, which is why Mark Hoban would not meet with Spartacus, George Osborne would not debate with Baroness Grey-Thompson and no one dares appear on radio or television opposite Sue Marsh to argue welfare. Those are all reasonable people, who they refuse to be reasonable with. One day they'll wish they did.

EDIT: Apologies but events have moved on and it's just not going to be possible to get out another post like this in good time. I had expected last week to be a short one-off burst of bullshit but then 'you know what happened' and somehow ministers have been emboldened to ramp up rather than tone down the extravagant claims. As I write this, Iain Duncan Smith has just been caught out for the second time distorting DWP statistics by claiming less households are going to be affected by the benefit cap because it has already changed their behaviour. In reality, less people are going to be affected mainly because of changes to the policy since it's last impact assessment.

15 comments:

  1. Fully understand.Share your frustration that it is a bit late in the day to question such (mis)use of statistics and plethora of inaccuracies uttered on a daily basis,especially as we have pointing them out for some time.Instead of doing what I regard as basic journalism ,the majority were unquestionally repeating distortions,obsessing about the periphery and making ill-informed propaganda pieces advertised on a daily basis prior to transmission in what is regarded as THE current affairs radio programmee.Democracy is dead.

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  2. Made a repeated complaint to the BBC concerning online news item about "benefit cap"-again reiterating that it applied to those in work and non mention of Carers and others whose ability to work are severely limited or have no conditionality and that the minority were JSA receivers and it skewed debate by constant false comparisons of workless versus working.It is more by ommission that they are guilty of failing basic journalistic standards IMHO.They reiterated that the stated policy of Government they reiterated as factually correct in that that it is the stated Government policy(I paraphrase) but "it appears it could effect those that work and will bear this in mind as we cover it"

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  3. Hi Adrian, if they reply that those receiving working tax credit are exempt from the cap and you wish to advance the complaint further, remember that WTC is not available to everyone in work.

    I need to check how Universal Credit affects this and see if there's something worth writing about. Right now I'm trying to get my head together for a post about income top-up awards like WTC because it is really an issue I've delayed expressing an opinion on until I've done some serious thought on it.

    In a nutshell: I am now leaning less towards a living wage and more towards income being supplemented by cash payments as *statutory entitlements*. For all I've read on 'welfarism', that word has been used as a pejorative and a vague umbrella term rather than as a coherent idea. Now that I am certain I am a Welfarist(changing a previously held view that I was not ideologically in favour of social security), this is one of the pillars on which I have to hold a view on and have reasons for doing so.

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  4. Yeah,that is the point I am making.For some years I received IS,CA and worked.I am not falling for the divide and rule,and the cap is wrong but it is truly appalling in particular to suggest ,just work a bit harder to be exempt from the cap when you are either under no conditionality to or extremely limited due to sickness/disability/caring responsibilities to work enough hours to be entitled to TC.It also of course harder to move under these circumstances.The BBC have accepted that some people that work are effected,but tellingly when I complained before they adapted the page to "those not working" ;"so-called "on the sick" "parents with young children" and "others"-like a Daily Mail "apology".It convinced me no attempt at fairness was being applied,indeed I probably made things worse. I probably have mentioned this before but under UC anybody that receives Support for mortgage Interest will have it summarilly removed on any earnings-this allowed us to remain in a heavilly adapted house;this is a stab in the back for carers/ the sick/disabled-it is already time limited for JSA and the majority receivers are pensioners.The "justification/remedy" is exactly the same -move or work enough hours to compensate loss,with the ubiquitous "unfair to taxpayer"-I am equally appalled at this for the same reasons.I am sure some people are jealous/resent a very modest amount is received by us "to have a house better than theirs" even though any move would result in far far more money having to be spent-funny because at the time of having to decide what to do viv a vis sudden disability-we chose the most cost effective manner to deal with it .Thanks for replying.I am sorry I go on a bit but it is good for the soul and what remains of my sanity that others feel similar to me.regards.

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  5. The DWP website being transferred to GOV.UK.Don't like the sound of this!-

    https://www.gov.uk/government/announcements?keywords=&announcement_type_option=fatality-notices&topics%5B%5D=all&departments%5B%5D=department-for-work-pensions&world_locations%5B%5D=all&direction=before&date=2013-05-01

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  6. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10013943/A-million-on-benefit-capable-of-work.html

    FFS.rather convuluted and obvious attempt to link "broken homes" =benefit recipience= cause of deficit.We are exempt (thus far subject to my better half being transferred to the support group.The guy is an obvious (non)genius-the not quite dead yet,those with caring responsibilitiites and people in between jobs have sporadic work histories-unclear if some actually do work .I received out of work benefits for years-the four AM starts-curtains firmly closed were an figment of my imagination obviously.

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  7. Been away a few days.RIP Leni

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  8. Please allow me to repeat her last post to me-
    Hindle

    I am increasingly reminded of the early eugenicists - many of whom seemed to have genuinely believed they could 'better the lot' of humankind. They used similar rhetoric - dysfunctional and people lacking economic value were to be eliminated from the gene pool. Originally there was no talk of murder - no great plan to kill off certain people..

    Galton - a mathematician and observer of pattersn, loved statistics. Made lots of mistakes in this - as today's politicians do. A pattern showing that more poor people died young suggested the possibility of 'poor stock' - rather than hunger and general deprivation for instance . Galton repeated Mendel's experiments with peas - looking for genetic clues.

    It did not take long for his ideas to become twisted into something more punitive and nasty - one of his followers, Pearson' opposed the abolition of child labour and campaigned for its retention in order to maintain 'the economic value' of children to both parents and the employer ! Obviously this applied only to the children of the poor .

    Echoes of this language - often the self same phrases- can be heard now from politicians from all parties - slightly reframed in terms of reducing deficits, sharing the burden etc but still placing blame on the poor or the disabled . The ideas that salvation lies in work, that financial rewards go to the deserving or the godly are all there in the rhetoric .

    What is noticeably lacking are any referneces to need - to support or caring and absolutely no recognition that it is generally poverty and a non-responsive society which changes differences or illness into 'disability' . We do not need physical labels or branding to identify our status - in these days of mass communication which repeats the same messages day in and day out we can be branded by language - status conferred and discriminatory reponses and treatment meted out .

    Take care of yourself and those around you . leni

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  9. In some ways,it is harder to deal with the passing of someone you never met,but wished you had.Memories of typed words on a screen is all I knew her by.May she be in peace.

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  10. There is one thing disagreeing with policy;there is another disagreeing with the attribution of characteristics by dint of particular benefit recipience or not;when you are constantly told of your failings,lack of education,laziness being the most common by the architect of UC and on day one ,a basic spelling mistake on the first page has somehow passed by-I truly weep for humanity-https://www.universalcredit.service.gov.uk/my.policy

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  11. Personally,I would not even consider using the following method to claim CA,if it is going to be the default ,or variation thereof I am glad that we claimed it the "old fashioned way" with writing things in form and stupid thick stuff like that- stuff that was safe,easy to follow etc http://www.dwp.gov.uk/carersallowance/

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  12. I note the change of tone-
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/work-capability-assessment-fairer-and-more-accurate-so the vast majority subject to the test they were supposedly trying to avoid were actually found to be too ill/disabled to work,even allowing for stricter eligibility.WE are the truth tellers let facts and actual evidence rip their misanthropy apart.

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  13. MD.A-this programme may be of some interest-measles/MMR/Wakefield/Autism -
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s4szl

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  14. Hang on a minute,benefit caps etc does not effect disabled people at all nope says Government but fifty billion on disabled people includes same categories that are definately not effected but are-https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/186956/foi-774-2013.pdf

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  15. maybe of interest-http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s83bx

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