You're probably not a Yorkshireman. You might be, but statistics say that despite our virility non-Yorkshiremen outnumber Yorkshiremen by 1:1,140. The world is playing it safe.
You should play it safe too as you've already had quite a bit to read if you're following this investigation and could be in danger of having your non-Autistic non-Yorkshire brains give up on you. So from here this investigation will be broken up into smaller posts. First, let's look at the DWP figures(similar to the ONS figures) for Jobseekers Allowance in a time series. Go on, look at it.
Look at them, those feckless workshy charging the barricades to take the money. Angry? Good, because you're an idiot. Anyone can see(Autistic Yorkshireman or not) that JSA claims were actually falling, a moderate downward trend in the last decade. The sudden shoot upwards coinciding with the recession would suggest that a policy of job growth is needed to bring those numbers down, but what would I know?
What about all those claimants before the recession though? How long have they been claiming? Well you could check the Excel file provided by Channel 4 but here's another graph.
Long-term JSA claimants made up little more than 5% of the claims in 2000 and make up less than 0.5% of the claims now.
The main lead I have on Case file #4 however is that the Coalition angle on jobless benefit claimants isn't just confined to Jobseekers Allowance, but to other unemployment benefits. Early on in the Coalition's campaign to whip up a public frenzy against the sick and disabled they suggested that Disability Living Allowance was an out of work benefit and were caught out. Having not admitted the 'error' they just quickly stopped using it and instead focused on the actual out of work disability claims; Incapacity Benefit and it's replacement the Employment and Support Allowance. They insisted this was out of control, it was unaffordable, people who could work were being parked on this and never being heard from again. Using the IB-ESA transition trials of Aberdeen and Burnley they claimed most of those actually put through the tough Work Capability Assessment were fit to work after all. Here's some perspective.
The green line shows just Incapacity Benefit claims whilst the blue line is Incapacity Claims plus ESA. ESA was introduced in August 2008 and with new IB claims no longer being accepted it is....quickly dropping off, what? Existing claimants start dropping almost instantly. Why does that matter? Because the transition trial is just in two constituencies and started two years later, the vast majority of those who were already claiming IB for long-term reasons are still claiming whilst those who claimed IB for short-term reasons are claiming and then their time on it is expiring naturally(they are either getting better and then going back to work or dying from what they have). That sudden drop means a majority of IB claims were short-term to begin with. When new claims for IB were stopped, the natural end of claims carried on and in just two years the caseload has halved and still appears to be on a quickly dropping trend.
The only other sole benefit which the jobless can draw on to survive is Income Support.
Case file #4 finds that the Coalition has repeated its selective use of data to support it's welfare policy in regards to disability unemployment benefits whilst ignoring much more obvious, less obscure data at their fingertips which contradict their case for welfare reform. Case file #4 finds no evidential support for reform of Jobseekers Allowance and Incapacity Benefit. The reactionary Labour government initiative of Employment and Support Allowance in fact marks the point at which the existing moderate down-trend of Incapacity Claims ended; with the introduction of ESA and not the recession as was the case for boom in JSA claims. The Coalition seeks to make the same mistakes.
Income Support is a benefit which the Coalition has only just raised it's voice on, but has not committed to an aggressive misinformation campaign yet. This investigation must arrive at the scene before the crime has a chance to happen. The investigation is on-going.